Kudos to the people of Sri Lanka for further enriching the roots of democracy as the elections on September 21 and the following run-off gave a clear mandate from among the 38 candidates vying for the top post in the first-ever elections since the removal of Rajapaksas in 2022 by the protesting Sri Lankans against their misrule.
It seems to have become the standard playbook, as has been witnessed in neighboring Bangladesh, where another unpopular Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, had to flee the country in view of the increasingly violent protests against her style of governance. Political scientists and observers will argue on the reasons, outcomes, and rights and wrongs of such actions in democracies and dictatorships alike.
Meanwhile, the Sri Lankan elections threw up a surprise result when Anura Dissanayake (AKD) was eventually declared the winner and taken over as the President of an economically struggling and strapped nation. The last direct elections in 2019 saw a landslide but rather a short victory of Gotabaya Rajapaksa, whose regime was responsible for the downfall of the country, which was about to cross the threshold of developing country status.
Apart from the adverse impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, the pandemic, and the debilitating billions of dollars of debts that Rajapaksa, in his wisdom, had secured from China for his white elephantine projects were responsible for this state of affairs. He even pawned away the critical ports due to non-payment. The plight of the people and a combination of irresponsible policies mired by corruption led to his exit from the political scene.
One of the common factors in the 2019 and 2024 elections is another major contender, Sajith Premadasa, who, on both occasions, secured the second position. The interim President Ranil Wickremasinghe, who tried to stabilize the economy to some extent, lost the people’s faith even as he contested as an independent candidate.
I was in Colombo in March 2022 when the disgruntled Sri Lankans rose against Rajapaksa and his clan and evicted him from power and the country. Of course, Namal Rajapaksa, son of Mahinda Rajapaksa of SLPP, was one of the contenders, but his fate was a given since public memory was not so short.
Dissanayake was declared winner in the second round, securing 55.89 percent votes, and was sworn in. All sides accepted the results, and a smooth transition was witnessed, for which credit must go to the people of Sri Lanka, who are entitled to vote and rank three preferences from among the 38 candidates. Sri Lankans possibly wanted to exercise the third option as against the two major political parties.
Dissanayake campaigned on a platform promoting economic freedoms and welfare protections for the working class. He is not even happy with the $2.9 IMF loan conditionalities and may initiate renegotiations despite limited choices.
President Dissanayake and his NPP (National People’s Power) political party and Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) have a Marxist dispensation. They are often seen aligning with the Chinese Communist Party CCP. He had also visited China in 2023. No wonder the Chinese President Xi Jinping quickly congratulated the new Sri Lankan President. Even the Indian CPI(M) expressed their happiness at the election of the first ever Marxist leader in Sri Lanka.
Hence, even though in the short run, it might appear that his leanings towards China could be disconcerting for the Indian policymakers as his party has also been opposed to the 13th amendment to the Constitution for the representation of Tamil Minorites. His father, the party’s founder in the 1980s, had strong views about India. But in the public eye, the role of China and the usurpation of their vital assets like Hambantota Port for 99 years and the daily plight that the heavy Chinese debt had created at the grassroots level could have a sobering impact on the new leadership. After all, people don’t have such a short memory.
India is the only country that rose to the occasion when Sri Lankans needed it the most, with over $4 billion in loans, grants and investments, and high-impact community projects. India’s continued assistance helped stabilize the country in accordance with the non-reciprocal Neighbourhood First Policy. The Indian High Commissioner to Sri Lanka was one of the first to meet the new President and discuss the way forward for our bilateral cooperation while assuring him of India’s fullest support as he confronts the domestic socio-economic challenges.
Both sides need some time for reassessments, but given the civilizational connection and benign and welfare-oriented Indian policies towards the people of Sri Lanka, the relationship will continue to move in a sound trajectory for mutual interests and mutual benefit with due regard to mutual sensitivities.
This was clearly evident during Dissanayake’s visit to India in February this year when he met both Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar and NSA Ajit Doval and even visited the Amul dairy plant, about which he had certain misgivings. New Delhi should extend an invitation to him to visit India if it has not already done so. Prime Minister Modi congratulated the Sri Lankan President, emphasizing that he looks forward to working closely with him to strengthen Indo-Lankan multifaceted cooperation further.
Foreign policy in the neighborhood turns out to be a sine curve, but that’s what engineers the constant recalibration and rejuvenation of relationships. China in our neighborhood is a reality, and India understands it. There is no reason to believe that the national interest of the country will reign supreme in his balancing foreign policy calculations. Although he said, “I am not a magician,” he would need to spin out some original tricks to tide over the economic problems faced by the people.
Ambassador Anil Trigunayat
Anil Trigunayat is a former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta and has served in Russia twice.
