Strategic Autonomy in a Polarized World: India’s Resilient Path Forward

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New Delhi – In 2024, the world stood at a critical juncture as deepening fault lines and multiplying crises reshaped the global landscape. Wars in Europe and the Middle East disrupted the world order, sparking upheavals in energy markets and food security, with cascading challenges felt across every region. Meanwhile, the Indo-Pacific emerged as a flashpoint, marked by China’s aggressive actions destabilizing the South China Sea and its borders with India. In Europe, the conflict in Ukraine continued to strain global energy supplies and exacerbated inflation. The Middle East witnessed escalating tensions with the Israel-Hamas conflict, which drew in international actors and deepened divides across the region. Meanwhile, Myanmar’s internal strife and Bangladesh’s political unrest threatened regional equilibrium, highlighting the fragility of South Asia’s neighborhood. These crises, coupled with the persistent threat of climate change and rising inequality, underscored the interconnectedness of global challenges and the urgent need for coordinated responses.

India’s foreign policy demonstrated remarkable clarity and resilience in this fraught environment. Balancing strategic autonomy with global engagement, India ensured its interests were safeguarded even as it contributed to stability beyond its borders. By diversifying energy imports and fostering renewable energy partnerships, it demonstrated a pragmatic approach to achieving energy independence amid global volatility.

Major elections in 2024 heightened geopolitical uncertainty, with Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency reshaping Washington’s foreign policy priorities. A Trump-led administration presents both opportunities and challenges for India. While his stated focus is on ending the two major conflicts, countering China, and deepening ties with like-minded democracies aligns with India’s goals, potential shifts in trade policies and his transactional approach to alliances could require India to navigate complexities with caution and tact. Furthermore, Trump’s stricter immigration policies, such as changes to H-1B visa regulations and family-based immigration programs, could significantly impact Indian professionals and the diaspora. Nonetheless, the bipartisan consensus on strengthening India-US relations remains intact. As the world’s two largest democracies, the partnership continues to evolve as a cornerstone of stability in an increasingly polarised world. India’s diplomatic agility will be essential in navigating these dynamics.

The successive presidencies of Brazil and South Africa are building on India’s remarkable G20 legacy, advancing policies rooted in human-centric globalization and the global common good. India’s foreign policy imprint has grown stronger on the international stage, embodied by the concept of Vishwa Mitra (Friend to the World), reflecting its commitment to collaboration, global well-being, and sustainable development. From its leadership in the G20 to its vaccine diplomacy, advocacy for equitable access to digital public goods, and role as a first responder in times of need, India exemplifies the principles of inclusivity and shared progress.

Under PM Modi’s leadership, India has positioned itself as a partner for addressing global challenges, fostering mutual respect, and advancing a vision of a peaceful and equitable world order. His commitment to achieving peace through diplomacy and dialogue was borne out by his visits to Russia and Ukraine in this endeavor.

At the same time, the global conflicts of 2024 underscored the urgent need for robust defense capabilities. With global military spending at unprecedented levels, India’s defense budget of $81 billion signals its commitment to national security. Amid rising tensions, India’s focus on self-reliance in critical sectors like defense manufacturing and emerging technologies demonstrates its ability to innovate while meeting strategic needs.

Regionally, India has had to deal with unprecedented challenges arising from economic turmoil and great power rivalry in our immediate region. In Sri Lanka and the Maldives, it extended financial and technical support to stabilize economies, while calibrated diplomacy ensured continued engagement with Bangladesh. To safeguard its core interests in Bangladesh amidst its political unrest, India needs more proactive engagement with all stakeholders. The Israel-Hamas conflict further tested India’s diplomatic balance as it safeguarded its diaspora, provided humanitarian aid, and called for peaceful resolutions.

As 2025 approaches, India must continue leveraging its strengths while addressing emerging challenges. India’s policy of pragmatic strategic autonomy will be crucial in navigating multilateral platforms and addressing the complexities of emerging geopolitics. Significantly upping our strategic ties with the US is an opportunity afforded by Trump’s unprecedented win. Engaging with trusted partners and those not so trusted alike is necessary if we are to secure our larger interests.

Geopolitically, tactfully managing China’s assertiveness and ensuring regional stability will demand sustained engagement with Quad partners and in multilateral forums like BRICS and the SCO. Any rapprochement with China must prioritize calibrating peace and tranquility in the border areas.

India’s foreign policy will also need to continue to follow its ‘neighborhood first’ approach. Managing relations with our immediate neighbors will secure our vital national interests and allow us to deal with our major interlocutors more effectively. Extending PM Modi’s vision of ‘sabka saath, sabka vikas’ in our immediate neighborhood will ensure ‘sabka vishwas’.

On the global stage, India can further leverage its G20 legacy to champion the concerns of the Global South, particularly in debt relief and climate financing. India must continue its support for Africa and countries in the developing world by extending critical assistance in infrastructure development, healthcare, and renewable energy. Expanding digital public infrastructure as a global public goodwill elevate India’s technological leadership and foster inclusivity. Energy security will be critical in 2025, and India must continue diversifying its energy sources and accelerating its clean energy transition.

Harsh Vardhan Shringla
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Harsh Vardhan Shringla is a former Foreign Secretary, and former Indian Ambassador to the US, Bangladesh and Thailand. The views expressed are personal.

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